Posted on: 22nd November 2016
If you’re completely honest, chances are there is no way you saw it coming. Following the most incredibly bitter and controversial presidential election campaign the United States has ever seen, none other than Donald Trump himself successfully secured his seeds in the Oval Office. Despite having horrified much of the world with proposed policies including barring Muslims from entering the United States, scrapping a number of trade deals and building a giant border between the US and Mexico, he nonetheless romped home with a convincing victory. He will therefore now become the 45th President of the United States, when he is handed the keys to the White House in January 2017.
Even at the time the ballots were still being counted, many of the world’s key equity markets began turning a worrying yet highly appropriate shade of red. The reason being that up until this time, they had for the most part thrown out any realistic chance of the Republican presidential candidate actually succeeding. This is something that had been largely predicted by a great many analysts and economists ahead of time, who stated that both the United States dollar and global equity markets would hit extreme turbulence in the short-term, given the way in which Trump’s stance on important financial and economic matters prior to the election were so confused and conflicting.
As far as the long-term picture goes, however, there is for the time being just cause for both optimism and concern, as to what exactly may come to pass under the Trump administration.
For example, the fact that Trump is so incredibly protective and territorial in general could prove extremely dangerous for financial markets and growth worldwide. For one thing, he has spoken of imposing a 45% tax levy on imports from China, while at the same time lashing out at China in general as a supposed ‘currency manipulator’. Suffice to say, the retaliation from the Chinese government now he is in power could be significant. Not to mention, one with the kinds of shock waves that will no doubt be felt worldwide.
On a slightly more positive note, Trump taking power could at least bring to an end the incredibly damaging policy backlog that showed little to no signs of shifting under the Obama Administration. Given the way in which the Republican party now has control of the White House, the House of Representatives and the Senate, this could at least mean positive progress by way of an end to procrastination and confusion.
Trump has also stated that he intends to roll out a massive corporation tax cut, reducing it from today’s 35% to just 15%. He also promised additional spending on essential infrastructure of $500 billion. Should these policies materialize, they could be of enormous benefit for the United States economy in general. In addition, many continue to hold out hope that Trump will uphold his pledge to forge the strongest ever trade deal with the United Kingdom, which could potentially soften the economic blow of Brexit considerably.